According to a recent report by the World Economic Forum (WEF), the Indian job market is expected to witness a 22% churn over the next five years. The report also states that globally, the job market churn is estimated to be 23%, with 69 million new jobs expected to be created and 83 million jobs expected to be eliminated by 2027. The WEF’s Future of Jobs report found that almost a quarter of jobs (23%) are expected to change in the next five years through growth of 10.2% and decline of 12.3% globally.
The report is based on a survey of 803 companies, which collectively employ over 11.3 million workers in 27 industry clusters and 45 economies from all world regions. The report estimates that employers anticipate 69 million new jobs to be created and 83 million jobs to be eliminated among the 673 million jobs corresponding to the dataset, a net decrease of 14 million jobs or 2% of current employment.
The WEF report states that the top emerging roles in India will come from the AI, machine learning, and data segments. The top roles for industry transformation in India would be AI and machine learning specialists, and data analysts and scientists. The report also found that the manufacturing and oil and gas sectors have the highest level of green skill intensity globally, with India, the US and Finland featuring at the top of the list for the oil and gas sector.
The report also highlighted that while expectations of the displacement of physical and manual work by machines have decreased, reasoning, communicating and coordinating – all traits with a comparative advantage for humans – are expected to be more automatable in the future. Artificial intelligence, a key driver of potential algorithmic displacement, is expected to be adopted by nearly 75% of surveyed companies and is expected to lead to high churn – with 50% of organisations expecting it to create job growth and 25% anticipating it to result in job losses.
The WEF report also found that the largest absolute gains in jobs will come from education and agriculture. The report found that jobs in the education industry are expected to grow by about 10%, leading to 3 million additional jobs for vocational education teachers and university and higher education teachers. Jobs for agricultural professionals, especially agricultural equipment operators, graders and sorters, are expected to see a 15-30% increase, leading to an additional 4 million jobs.
The report also highlights that globally, six in 10 workers will require training before 2027, but only half of the employees are seen to have access to adequate training opportunities today. The report estimates that, on average, 44% of an individual worker’s skills will need to be updated.
The WEF report concludes that macro trends, including the green transition, ESG standards, and localisation of supply chains, are the leading drivers of job growth globally, with economic challenges, including high inflation, slower economic growth and supply shortages, posing the greatest threat. The report suggests that governments and businesses must invest in supporting the shift to the jobs of the future through education, reskilling and social support structures that can ensure individuals are at the heart of the future of work.
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